Monte Carlo Forecast "How Many" Chart
What can we get done by the deadline?
A table with 19 rows, from 95% down to 5%. Each row reads: in this share of 10,000 simulated futures, at least this many work items were finished by the target date ("Number of work items").
How the forecast is calculated
The target date is today plus the number of periods in "Forecast periods"; the header shows it, for example "Forecast for 10 weeks (target: 2026-12-31)". The history is the number of work items resolved in each complete period of the window; the current period is left out.
Each simulation adds up as many past periods, drawn at random, as there are forecast periods. The rows then read the 10,000 totals so that the 85% row shows the number that 85% of the simulations reached at least. A higher probability therefore means fewer work items. See Monte Carlo forecasts.
Settings
| Setting | Default | Options |
|---|---|---|
| Project or filter | none, required | any project or saved filter you can see |
| Period | Weekly | Daily, Weekly or Monthly |
| Forecast periods | 10 | 1 to 100 |
| Days previously | 90 | 1 to 720 |
When there is no forecast
If nothing was resolved in the history, the chart says: "No work items were resolved in the throughput window, so there is no history to forecast from."
Opening work items
The line "Sample: … resolved in that window (click to open)" opens the resolved work items the history is based on, up to 300.